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1

Jordan Bardella

26.5%

$0.265

2

Édouard Philippe

20.5%

$0.205

3

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

12.5%

$0.125

4

Marine Le Pen

7.5%

$0.075

5

Gabriel Attal

3.7%

$0.037

31 more outcomes Listed by current odds

  • #6Dominique de Villepin 3.3% $0.033

  • #7François Hollande 3.2% $0.032

  • #8David Lisnard 2.3% $0.023

  • #9Bruno Retailleau 2.1% $0.021

  • #10Sarah Knafo 1.9% $0.019

  • #11Raphaël Glucksmann 1.8% $0.018

  • #12Éric Zemmour 1% $0.01

  • #13Sébastien Lecornu 0.9% $0.009

  • #14Laurent Wauquiez 0.8% $0.008

  • #15Michel Barnier 0.8% $0.008

  • #16Gérald Darmanin 0.8% $0.008

  • #17Fabien Roussel 0.7% $0.007

  • #18François Asselineau 0.7% $0.007

  • #19Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.7% $0.007

  • #20Valérie Pécresse 0.7% $0.007

  • #21Élisabeth Borne 0.7% $0.007

  • #22Jean Castex 0.7% $0.007

  • #23Carole Delga 0.7% $0.007

  • #24Manuel Bompard 0.7% $0.007

  • #25Juan Branco 0.7% $0.007

  • #26Xavier Bertrand 0.7% $0.007

  • #27François Ruffin 0.7% $0.007

  • #28Marine Tondelier 0.7% $0.007

  • #29Olivier Faure 0.7% $0.007

  • #30Ségolène Royal 0.7% $0.007

  • #31Clémentine Autain 0.7% $0.007

  • #32François Bayrou 0.7% $0.007

  • #33Yaël Braun-Pivet 0.7% $0.007

  • #34Bernard Cazeneuve 0.7% $0.007

  • #35Mathilde Panot 0.7% $0.007

  • #36Clémence Guetté 0.6% $0.006

Volume $98.63MLiquidity $10.01MOpen Interest $621.89KLast updated 4 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 13, 2026 10:42 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 13, 2026, 17:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Pricing frames 2027 as a fragmented contest where RN succession and a Philippe-led center-right lane dominate over legacy party names.

Because the contract resolves to the winner, candidate selection and runoff viability matter more than first-round polling alone.

Mixed signal 68%Catalyst Party nominations and first durable 2027 pollingRisk Candidate may not run or qualify

What could reprice it

The next major repricing point is formal candidacy and alliance formation, especially RN’s Le Pen/Bardella choice and Macronist successor sorting.

Endorsements, primary rules, or legal eligibility updates can shift probability before broad national polls become decisive.

Mixed signal 62%Catalyst RN and centrist nomination signalsRisk Informal statements may be reversed

Where the market may be weak

Deep headline liquidity masks a long-dated market with thin open interest versus volume, so prices can reflect positioning churn more than fresh information.

Many tail outcomes trade near floor levels, making relative moves noisy and sensitive to market-maker pricing.

Thin signal 47%Risk Long horizon and stale tails

Counter-signal

The current ranking may underweight how France’s two-round system can punish polarizing first-round leaders and elevate compromise candidates late.

Runoff polling, turnout blocs, and tactical withdrawals can overturn early name recognition advantages.

Counterweight 55%Catalyst Runoff polling and alliance withdrawalsRisk First-round leader may consolidate

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market Interieur

Probability history

24h7d30d90dAll

Market details

Resolution criteriaThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

Platform

CategoryPolitics › Global Elections

Close dateApril 30, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC

Settlement sourceInterieur

Market rules summaryMulti-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules

The market’s shape points to a concentrated but fragile story: Jordan Bardella’s lead does most of the work, while Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Marine Le Pen absorb distinct ways that candidate selection could break before 2027. That matters because settlement depends on the official winner reported by the Interior Ministry, so every pre-election signal matters through one question: which listed name can convert visibility into the final result.

Bardella’s lead is also a bet on candidate ownership

Bardella at 27.5% is the clearest market-implied anchor, yet Marine Le Pen at 8.5% prevents that lead from reading as a settled personal claim. The one-day move, with Bardella down 1 percentage point and Le Pen up 1 point, is small in isolation, but it points to a candidate-allocation issue inside a shared electoral lane. The market is assigning more weight to Bardella as the eventual standard-bearer while keeping Le Pen alive as a fallback or alternative path.

That distinction matters because this event is candidate-specific. A broad political current does not settle the contract unless the correct individual wins the presidency. The pricing therefore has to solve two problems at once: the strength of a political bloc and the identity of the person who captures it. Bardella’s premium suggests the market currently treats him as the cleaner vessel for that path; Le Pen’s residual price signals that the handoff assumption still carries enough ambiguity to affect the whole board.

Philippe’s price keeps a consolidation path open

Édouard Philippe at 17.5% is the market’s main counterweight to Bardella, and his position matters because it prevents the field from collapsing into a single-name story. The gap between Philippe and lower-priced alternatives such as Gabriel Attal at 4.3%, Dominique de Villepin at 3.5%, François Hollande at 3.4%, David Lisnard at 2.4%, and Bruno Retailleau at 2.2% implies that the market sees one comparatively stronger route for a challenger to consolidate attention.

Candidate Current price Market-implied role
Jordan Bardella 27.5% Primary candidate-ownership bet
Édouard Philippe 17.5% Main consolidation alternative
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12.5% Third pole with personal durability
Marine Le Pen 8.5% Succession ambiguity and fallback value

The table shows why Philippe’s number matters beyond his own candidacy. If the anti-Bardella or non-Bardella path fragments across several recognizable names, Bardella’s lead becomes easier to sustain. If that path concentrates around Philippe or another single name, the market’s current distribution would have to absorb a cleaner two-person narrative.

Mélenchon’s double-digit price compresses the rest of the field

Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% gives the market a third meaningful pole. The significance is less the exact percentage and more the contrast with the long tail: many listed names sit between 0.6% and 1%, while only a handful rise above 2%. That pattern implies that the market is assigning real weight to personal political durability, then scattering small amounts across contingency candidates whose paths depend on future selection shocks.

This matters because a crowded low-price tail can look quiet until one name receives a credible reason to become the focal point. A formal candidacy signal, a withdrawal by a higher-priced figure, or a public alignment around one alternative could move probability quickly from diffuse names into a single contract. Mélenchon’s current position therefore acts as both a standalone probability and a benchmark for whether another candidate can escape the tail.

The 2027 runway makes candidacy signals unusually price-sensitive

The market closes on April 30, 2027, and the rules state that the next election is currently expected around April 2027 while also covering an earlier election if one occurs. That rule detail matters because timing risk is part of the price. A shorter calendar would reward candidates with existing national salience; a longer calendar gives weaker-priced names more time to organize a credible path.

The market has already attracted $97.44 million in volume and $9.68 million in liquidity, which means the top prices are supported by meaningful activity. Open interest of $712,900 also suggests that the outstanding committed exposure is much smaller than cumulative turnover, an inference that the board can still be reshaped by fresh information. Catalysts with the clearest link to repricing include:

  • Formal declarations or withdrawals by Bardella, Le Pen, Philippe, or Mélenchon.
  • A hypothetical consolidation agreement that channels support toward one listed alternative.
  • A hypothetical earlier election date, which the rules explicitly allow for settlement.
  • Publication of official candidate information by the relevant authorities when the process reaches that stage.
  • Sustained public evidence that one low-priced candidate is becoming the focal alternative.

The main failure mode is a low-priced name becoming unavoidable

The strongest counter-signal to the current distribution is the number of politically familiar names priced near the floor. Sarah Knafo at 2.1%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 1.8%, Sébastien Lecornu at 1%, Gérald Darmanin at 0.9%, and several others below 1% are individually small, yet collectively they represent the market’s acknowledgment that candidate selection can surprise.

That matters because the event resolves on the eventual winner, not on today’s ranking of plausible nominees. If a low-priced figure gains institutional backing, becomes the beneficiary of withdrawals, or emerges from a hypothetical campaign crisis affecting higher-priced names, the market-implied story would shift from leader durability to nomination disruption. Until then, Bardella’s lead expresses the cleanest current path, while the rest of the board prices the cost of France’s unresolved candidate map.

Sources

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